Any contender in baseball that needs rotation help should be all over Eovaldi. He has pitched to a 3. 05 ERA across nearly 80 innings pitched in the postseason.
Back in 2023, Eovaldi won five of his six starts for the Texas Rangers in their path to winning the World Series. He followed up his brilliant postseason with a very strong 2024 campaign, which saw him pitch to a 3. 80 ERA across 170 2/3 innings pitched.
The Orioles could desperately use another frontline starter to pair with Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez atop their rotaiton. That frontline starter could be an ace, like bringing back Corbin Burnes, or targeting Max Fried or Blake Snell. For less money though, they could land Eovaldi as another No.
2 type starter, who they could feel confident handing the ball to every fifth day of the regular season, then into October. 11. Sean Manaea, SP *2024 Stats: 12-6, 3.
47 ERA, 3. 83 FIP, 32 GS, 181 2/3 IP, 184 K, 2. 8 fWARAge in 2025: 33Contract Prediction: Four years, $76 millionTeam Prediction: New York MetsSean Manaea is coming off a career-year, where he established himself as the ace of the New York Mets on their deep playoff run to Game 6 of the NLCS.
Manaea started that game and struggled as he had clearly run out of gas, after getting pushed more than he ever had in his career. Manaea eclipsed 180 innings pitched in the regular season for the first time in his career, and added 19 innings across four playoff starts, pushing him over 200 innings total. In the middle of the season, Manaea dropped his arm angle to mimic Chris Sale, and it made him one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball.
From June 14th through the end of the season, Manaea led all starting pitchers in innings pitched (121) and in batting average against (. 178). Now entering free agency after opting out of a $13.
5 million contract for the 2025 season, Manaea is looking to cash in on a big multi-year deal. Manaea has already declined the Mets $21. 05 million qualifying offer, which would have been the most he has ever made in a single season in his career.
Manaea expects to make roughly that per year on his next deal, especially if it is for three years or less. If Manaea can land a four-year deal going into his age-33 season, the AAV could be a little less. 10.
Jack Flaherty, SP2024 Stats: 13-7, 3. 17 ERA, 3. 48 FIP, 28 GS, 162 IP, 194 K, 3.
2 fWARAge in 2025: 29Contract Prediction: Five years, $100 millionTeam Prediction: Los Angeles AngelsJack Flaherty is in a similar free agent tier as the two names above him on this list, Nathan Eovaldi and Sean Manaea. Where Flaherty has the edge, however, is the fact that he does not have a qualifying offer attached, since he was traded mid-season. Flaherty just turned 29 years old in October, giving him every chance to sign at least a five-year deal in free agency.
The right-hander’s track record is mixed, as he is only a year removed from pitching to a 4. 99 ERA in 2023. But a great contract year split between the Tigers and Dodgers has Flaherty in line for a big payday.
Finding a team for Flaherty is a bit harder, however, as it is unclear who is willing to bet on him over a longer-term deal. The Angels have been aggressive this offseason and could use an ace. It may not be the best fit for Flaherty to win, but it could be the best place for him to get paid.
9. Teoscar Hernández, OF *2024 Stats: . 272/.
339/. 501, 33 HR, 12 SB, 99 RBI, 134 wRC+, 3. 5 fWARAge in 2025: 32Contract Prediction: Four years, $85 millionTeam Prediction: New York YankeesTeoscar Hernandez hit free agency last year after a down season in Seattle, where he posted just a .
741 OPS. Instead of signing what was deemed a below-market multi-year deal, Hernandez chose to sign a one-year, $23. 5 million deal, with $8.
5 million deferred. The prove-it deal was a bet on himself, and a chance to win it all with the best team in baseball. Things worked out on both fronts for Hernandez, who put up an All-Star season and took home his first World Series ring.
Now, Hernandez is ready to cash in and get paid. Entering his age-32 season, this is his real chance to get paid on a long-term deal. Since 2019, Tesocar is one of just a few hitters who has eclipsed 25 home runs in every full season.
His 158 home runs over that span rank 15th in MLB. Many teams will call Hernandez to add some power to their lineup, but the differentiating factor in negotiations may come down to who is willing to commit the most years to him. 8.
Anthony Santander, OF *2024 Stats: . 235/. 308/.
506, 44 HR, 102 RBI, 129 wRC+, 3. 3 fWARAge in 2025: 30Contract Prediction: Five years, $110 millionTeam Prediction: Toronto Blue JaysIf you are going to hit free agency, it is best to do it after a 44-home run campaign. Anthony Santander has been a consistent source of power for the Baltimore Orioles throughout his career, but cleared 40 homers and 100 RBIs for the first time in his final year with the club.
Now, the Orioles have to decide whether they re-sign him or collect the qualifying offer compensation for letting him walk. Meanwhile, other teams will have to weigh his offensive prowess with his struggles defensively which could leave him as more of a DH than an outfielder long-term. Still only 30 years old, Santander can look for a deal that is at least five years long in free agency, but teams may be wary of committing that many years to him.
If the Toronto Blue Jays strike out in their pursuit of Juan Soto, maybe they turn their attention to Santander and look to poach a power threat from one of their division rivals. 7. Pete Alonso, 1B *2024 Stats: .
240/. 329/. 459, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 122 wRC+, 2.
1 fWARAge in 2025: 30Contract Prediction: Six years, $140 millionTeam Prediction: New York MetsSince making his debut in 2019, only one player in Major League Baseball has hit more home runs than Pete Alonso. That player is Aaron Judge. Meanwhile, no one has driven in more runs than Alonso.
Alonso is a consistent source of power, where you can almost pencil him in for 40 home runs and 100 RBIs each year. Alonso cleared both of those marks in 2022 and 2023, but failed to reach those marks in 2024. The soon-to-be 30-year-old hit “just” 34 home runs in his contract year, with “only” 88 RBIs.
Those numbers were less than we’ve come to expect for the Polar Bear, but some big moments in October surely made up for his relatively lackluster regular season. Alonso hit a massive come-from-behind home run against Devin Williams to help the Mets advance in the NL Wild Card round and went on to hit three more across a postseason run where he posted a . 999 OPS.
The biggest question now is if those moments where Alonso’s last in a Mets uniform. It appears that Juan Soto is the Mets’ top priority in free agency, and rightfully so, but it is unclear how those sweepstakes will impact Alonso and his future with the team that drafted him. For now, we still have him going back to New York.
6. Max Fried, SP *2024 Stats: 11-10, 3. 25 ERA, 3.
33 FIP, 29 GS, 174 1/3 IP, 166 K, 3. 4 fWARAge in 2025: 31Contract Prediction: Seven years, $190 millionTeam Prediction: Los Angeles DodgersIf not for having the qualifying offer attached to him, Max Fried might be considered the second-best starting pitcher in this free agent class. Between Fried and Blake Snell, teams are picking between two electric southpaws, who can easily lead your rotation.
Snell has been a bit more dominant lately, and he does not come with a QO attached. But Fried has been as consistent as they come across his career. Whoever lands Fried is getting a pitcher who has a 3.
07 career ERA, who has eclipsed 165 innings pitched four times in the last five full seasons since 2019. If the Braves were going to keep Fried, it feels like they would have signed him to an extension by now. Assuming he does walk, going to the best team in baseball would be a great landing spot for Fried, who should get at least six years and could exceed $30 million per year in free agency.
5. Blake Snell, SP2024 Stats: 5-3, 3. 12 ERA, 2.
43 FIP, 20 GS, 104 IP, 145 K, 3. 1 fWARAge in 2025: 32Contract Prediction: Five years, $155 millionTeam Prediction: San Francisco GiantsWe just talked about Blake Snell in our comparison between him and Max Fried. Snell was a free agent last year after winning the NL Cy Young in 2023.
He could not land a long-term deal last time around, settling for a two-year deal with an opt-out with the San Francisco Giants. While he struggled early on in his Giants tenure, Snell eventually figured it out, pitching to an MLB-best 1. 23 ERA across his final 14 starts from July through the end of the season.
Teams have to understand at this point that they are getting one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball if they sign Snell, who has the benefit of being the one true ace with no qualifying offer attached, compared to Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. After not getting a long-term deal last time around, Snell should be looking for years this time around, and he should be getting paid at least $30 million per season. We have him going right back to the Giants but on a five-year deal worth over $150 million.
4. Alex Bregman, 3B *2024 Stats: . 260/.
315/. 453, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 118 wRC+, 4. 1 fWARAge in 2025: 31Contract Prediction: Six years, $168 millionTeam Prediction: Detroit TigersRecent reports indicate that Scott Boras is looking for Manny Machado money for Alex Bregman.
Considering the fact that he is entering his age-31 season, getting a deal that spans a full decade would be a bit of a surprise. Bregman has been a four-win player in each of the last three seasons. He has been a constant 25-HR threat, all while playing solid defense at third.
With that said, teams can’t just ignore that Bregman’s walk rate was nearly cut in half this past year, from 12. 7% to 6. 9%.
This caused Bregman’s on-base percentage to drop by nearly 40 points. Still, Bregman is the top third baseman on the market, who should have a healthy list of suitors. One of those suitors could be the Detroit Tigers, were Bregman would be reunited with his former manager A.
J. Hinch. The Tigers could use a veteran with Bregman’s winning pedigree to help them build off their outstanding second half push to a playoff berth in 2024.
If Bregman ends up signing a six-year deal as we have projected, expect the AAV to be closer to $30 million a year than to $25 million. 3. Willy Adames, SS *2024 Stats: .
251/. 331/. 462, 32 HR, 21 SB, 112 RBI, 119 wRC+, 4.
8 fWARAge in 2025: 29Contract Prediction: Eight years, $192 millionTeam Prediction: Philadelphia PhilliesThe top free agent shortstop in the market may also be the top free agent third baseman, as reports have indicated that Willy Adames would be open to switching positions for the right teams. Teams with incumbent shortstops like the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, or the New York Yankees could all look to Adames to play third, while others like the Braves may still want to keep him at short. Regardless of where he lands, Adames is going to command a long-term deal that should come in beyond five years, with an AAV north of $20 million.
In the past, we have seen the Phillies use years to drive down the AAV of the best free agent contracts they have signed, such as Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. If the Phillies decide to trade Alec Bohm, as speculated, they could view Adames as an upgrade at third base. Or they could even move Turner to third, and start Adames at shortstop, where he would be an upgrade over Turner defensively.
An eight-year deal, at $24 million per year could land Adames with the Phillies. 2. Corbin Burnes, SP *2024 Stats: 15-9, 2.
92 ERA, 3. 55 FIP, 32 GS, 194 1/3 IP, 181 K, 3. 7 fWARAge in 2025: 30Contract Prediction: Eight years, $232 millionTeam Prediction: Boston Red SoxThe Boston Red Sox need to make a splash this offseason, and they also need an ace.
Enter Corbin Burnes. Burnes would give the Red Sox an ace who has become one of the best workhorses in the game, something they desperately need. With Burnes, the Red Sox would have a veteran tone-setter in a rotation that includes plenty of rising young arms like Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello.
Considering how righty-heavy their rotation is, Max Friend or Blake Snell could be more attractive to the Red Sox, but we already mocked those aces to other teams. Regardless, the Red Sox need to land one of these aces in free agency to really change the perception of them heading into 2025. When it comes to the contract, Burnes’ nine-figure deal should be the one that starts with a 2, as he is expected to become the eighth pitcher in MLB history to receive a deal north of $200 million.
Expect Burnes to make at least $29 million per year over a seven-year deal ($203 million), although we have him getting an eighth year at that number for a grand total of $232 million. 1. Juan Soto, OF *2024 Stats: .
288/. 419/. 569, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 180 wRC+, 8.
1 fWARAge in 2025: 26Contract Prediction: 15 years, $645 millionTeam Prediction: New York MetsHow do you put proper monetary value on a 26-year-old free agent who is a near-lock to be a top-five hitter in baseball for the better part of the next decade? This is exactly what Juan Soto’s next team is trying to figure out right now, as they all submit offers to see if they can land a franchise-altering talent. Soto’s asking price was set last season when Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million deal.
Now beating Ohtani’s contract can come in many forms, thanks to the unprecedented nature of the $680 million in deferrals that Ohtani took. This brings the present day value of Ohtani’s deal to around $460 million according to the luxury tax, where he carries a hit of just over $46 million per year. Ohtani set the bar, but topping it can come in many forms.
Obviously is Scott Boras has his way, Soto will sign for $701 million, and grab the largest contract ever. However, when it comes to present day value, a contract that is $500 million will be the largest ever. Topping Ohtani’s $46.
08 million AAV is another way for Soto to end up with the biggest deal. My prediction of Soto signing a 15-year, $645 million deal, would break out to $43 million per year, which would trial Ohtani, but the present day value would trounce him by around $200 million. Is Soto really worth an extra $200 million?
When he gets five more years, yes he is. The winning bid for Soto could very well come down to years, and ultimately the Mets might be the one team crazy enough to go to 15 years if it means getting their guy. This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.