What initially seemed like a long shot officially turned into a formality this afternoon when Chris Cotillo broke the news that Nick Pivetta declined his qualifying offer from the Red Sox. Nick Pivetta declines qualifying offer, per source. — Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) November 19, 2024With this rejection of the one-year, $21 million offer, Pivetta is now a free agent.

In return, the Red Sox will get a compensatory selection at the end of the second round of the 2025 MLB draft. (The last time they got a compensatory draft selection at the end of the second round was in 2022 after this same process played out with Eduardo Rodriguez, and they turned it into Roman Anthony. ) This in itself is great news for Sox fans, but when placed in boarder context, it gets even better thanks to two other potentially enormous ramifications: 1) Craig Breslow has a good handle on the market.

2) The Red Sox are likely about to invest in a top of the rotation arm. The first is undeniable. The second is adamantly speculation, but speculation tends to lead you to the goods when you’re tracking how money and assets are being handled.

To get there, let’s back up a couple of weeks and run through the process. Below is a question from our Red Sox approval poll that inquired about how you, dear reader, felt about the decision to extend Pivetta the qualifying offer: Opinion among our community was split, and I’m sure if we polled even deeper, there would have been addition factions within the main two options. Once the offer was made however, three general possible scenarios were in play that still hold water (although I think now only one does): A) The Red Sox wanted Pivetta back, hoped he’d take the offer, and ended up with a draft pick instead.

(This seems highly unlikely. ) B) The Red Sox were unsure if Pivetta would accept the offer, but were willing to play games because they wanted to fish for a draft pick. (Many people probably still feel this is the case, but I’m not so sure for reasons I’ll detail below.

) C) The Red Sox were confident Pivetta wouldn’t accept the offer, and made it because it was an easy value add in a winter where they will likely be signing free agents who will cost them draft picks. (This is probably closer to the bone. ) How do we know that option C is likely correct?

Well, when you get beyond the fog of qualifying offers and draft pick compensation, there’s one other very big clue surrounding this whole situation: Roster construction. Right now, before the offseason really even kicks off, the Red Sox have potential 2025 starters that include Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Lucas Giolito, Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester. These are all guys who will be between the ages of 24 and 30 on Opening Day in 2025, and have already made major league starts.

I’m not fishing very deep here. This isn’t even counting guys who might otherwise emerge from below or arms they might sign this winter on the free agent market. This is a bare bones starting point.

What I’m getting at here is the Sox already have seven guys locked in who might make major league starts in 2025 and have highly volatile production potential. Why on Earth would they want to add Nick Pivetta to this pile? Despite being a ferocious competitor, Pivetta is really just another, older, more expensive highly volatile production piece.

Just walk down the two potential paths here: either the Sox are going to be cheap until the end of time now, or ownership is on the verge of reengaging. If they’re just cheap and want to be the Rays of the north now, why would they risk being on the hook for $21 million to Pivetta just for a potential draft pick when they can field a mediocre rotation at the bargain bin? Pivetta is excess to what they already have.

If you asked 100 people to rank these eight starters (including Pivetta) in terms of most to least WAR they will pile up in 2025, you might get 100 different answers. Nobody knows because they all have question marks! What the Red Sox need is top of the rotation pitching.

These seven guys they already have should work out quite splendidly if they’re competing for the bottom three spots of a five man rotation. Perhaps they could even work if they’re competing for the bottom four spots, but in either scenario, you really don’t want to be paying Nick Pivetta $21 million to take up a rotation spot in the event you’re about to either spend big or trade big to get an alpha arm. This is why the option C scenario is most likely.

There’s really no narrative where wanting Nick Pivetta on this roster makes sense. If you think the John Henry wants to cry poverty, Pivetta being here costs money and blocks younger guys with potential. If you think the Sox are about to spend again (as I now do), you need to clear roster space at the top of the rotation to make room for the incoming upgrades.

Knowing this, there’s only one way you make Nick Pivetta that qualifying offer. You knew! Craig Breslow sat down at the high rollers table and called the bluff.

He knew Nick Pivetta’s value on this pitching market because he actively plans to participate in it. He took the easy draft pick and quietly told the baseball world the Red Sox are back. If the context clues are correct, he’ll probably tell everybody again with a much louder proclamation in the coming weeks.

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