The Red Sox surprised many by giving Nick Pivetta the qualifying offer earlier this month. It now looks like their read of his market was a sound one. Pivetta, as had been widely expected throughout the industry in recent days, declined that offer (of a one-year, $21.

05 million deal) before Tuesday’s 4 p. m. deadline and will remain a free agent.

The decision doesn’t preclude the Red Sox and Pivetta from continuing to talk about a deal, but a reunion on a multi-year contract seems unlikely. Any team that signs Pivetta will have to forfeit at least one draft pick to do so; the Red Sox — as a result of failing to exceed the first competitive balance tax threshold in 2024 — will receive a compensation pick before the third round if he does leave. Pivetta has been linked to the Cubs, Braves and Orioles on the open market.

According to multiple baseball sources, the Astros and Rays have long coveted him and could also make a play for his services. By declining the one-year qualifying offer, Pivetta clearly believes — after surveying his market — that he can secure a lucrative multi-year contract with a club. Earlier this month, ESPN projected the righty to receive a three-year, $63 million contract, which is obviously more appealing than the one-year proposal at a similar annual rate.

BETTING: Check out our MA sports betting guide, where you can learn basic terminology, definitions and how to read odds for those interested in learning how to bet in Massachusetts. At the outset of the offseason, slugger Tyler O’Neill seemed like the most likely Red Sox free agent to warrant a qualifying offer but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow instead chose to qualify Pivetta, who was coming off another up-and-down season in which he posted a 4. 14 ERA (4.

07 FIP) in 145 ⅔ innings over 27 outings. His strikeout rate (10. 6 K/9) was again strong but he was hit hard by the long ball, ranking among the top 10 in baseball with 28 homers allowed.

If O’Neill departs, the Red Sox won’t receive compensation. Pivetta, who turns 32 in February, earned $7. 5 million last season, so the $21.

05 million rate would represent a massive raise. Giving him the offer was a calculated risk by the Red Sox, who had to be comfortable with the possibility of Pivetta accepting and returning to the roster at a hefty raise. It’s clear now that doing so represented a smart read as Pivetta and his representatives at CAA are aiming much higher in terms of overall value.

As MassLive’s Chris Smith wrote Monday, the Red Sox have a recent track record of turning a compensation pick into a top prospect. Two years ago, they received two extra picks when Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi both declined qualifying offers and signed elsewhere; the Bogaerts pick (No. 132 overall) turned into Kristian Campbell, who is now one of their top minor leaguers.

Because the 2024 Red Sox didn’t have a payroll over $237 million (the first CBT threshold), their compensation pick for Pivetta will come before the third round (not the fifth round like two years ago). In 131 games (107 starts) with Boston since 2020, Pivetta has posted a 37-41 record, 4. 29 ERA and 10.

2 K/9 rate. Gaining an extra pick for Pivetta will likely make it more palatable for the Red Sox to give up another selection (they’d have to forfeit their second pick and $500,000 in international signing money) to sign another qualified free agent. They have been linked to starters Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, outfielders Juan Soto and Teoscar Hernández and infielder Willy Adames in the early part of free agency.

Only one of the 13 players who received a qualifying offer — Cincinnati righty Nick Martinez — accepted it and re-signed with his team. Twelve free agents (Pivetta, Burnes, Fried, Soto, Hernández, Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Anthony Santander and Christian Walker) all declined. Including Martinez, only 14 players have accepted the qualifying offer since 2012.

The qualifying offer deadline is usually seen as an important stepping stone as teams begin to become more aggressive on the hot stove. The annual Winter Meetings begin in Dallas in three weeks. “Obviously, we have to be patient,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Saturday.

“I think everything starts, business-wise and industry-wise, from Tuesday on. See who is who and who’s going to be with who, and then go from there. ”This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.