This, and only this, is when I’ll believe the Red Sox’ interest in Juan Soto is genuine:When he’s at a press conference at Fenway Park in a couple of weeks, trying on his crisp new white Red Sox jersey, flashing an equally bright smile, and, a la Manny Ramirez in December 2000, firing a double thumbs-up at the cameras while saying wryly, “I’m just tired of seeing the Yankees always win. ”When it’s officially official. When the Red Sox have paid the extremely high, almost unfathomable going rate for a transcendent offensive player.
Just as they did 24 years ago when general manager Dan Duquette, after primary free agent target Mike Mussina instead chose to pledge the Evil Empire, signed Ramirez, the former Cleveland slugger, to an eight-year, $160 million contract. It was considered insanely lucrative and a little bit ludicrous. It made Ramirez just the second $20-million-per-year player in baseball history.
The first: Alex Rodriguez, who signed his $252 million deal with the Rangers earlier the same day. Few big-money signings delivered to the degree that Manny Ramirez did for the Red Sox. The Boston Globe/Boston GlobeIt also was worth it.
Ramirez gave the Red Sox an extraordinary, entertaining, and yes, enigmatic 7½ seasons before his trade to the Dodgers at the July 31 deadline in 2008. He ranks as one of the, if not the, best big-ticket free agent signings in baseball history. One would like to think that Ramirez’s success here — which included a featured role in two of the franchise’s four World Series titles this century — might inform a pursuit of Soto, who is a more exceptional offensive player than Ramirez in some ways and does not come with any of the, let’s say, idiosyncrasies.
But it’s easy to doubt that it will, and skepticism should rule the day when it comes to the Red Sox’ intentions, which included a recent three-hour meeting with Soto and his representatives. Said meeting was deemed to be “productive,” but the production did not include a formal offer for the 26-year-old outfielder with the career . 421 on-base percentage and .
953 OPS. Soto, who hit 41 home runs, produced 7. 9 Wins Above Replacement, and put up a .
989 OPS with the American League champion Yankees last season, has also met with the Blue Jays — who, remember, went hard after Shohei Ohtani last season — and the price-is-no-object Mets. He was scheduled to check back in with the Yankees on Monday, too, and the Dodgers’ recent announcement that Mookie Betts will play in the infield in 2025 should raise the antennae about their interest in adding Soto to their Hollywood horde of baseball A-listers. It is reasonable to wonder whether the Red Sox’ best opportunity to make the kind of offer that will make Soto take notice — presumably in the $600 million ballpark — may have already passed.
I find it hard to believe, nearly two full years after John Henry’s “I think the most informed thing I can say is that it’s expensive to have baseball players” comment at Winter Weekend, that the Red Sox are ready to pay Soto nearly twice what they would not pay homegrown superstar Betts coming off his age-26 season in 2019. I’d love to be wrong about that. The deal Soto is going to command will be absurd, but someone is going to pay him, and having him anchoring the heart of the Red Sox lineup for the next decade is something worth dreaming on.
He’s just that good. How good? His most statistically similar players through age 26, per Baseball Reference, is basically a who’s-who of the most exceptional young players in recent history.
In order: Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr. , Mike Trout, and Andruw Jones. Sure, there is a red flag or two there, or perhaps a Red Cross symbol.
Griffey was hurt a lot after age 30. Injuries have altered Trout’s Modern Day Mickey Mantle status. Jones aged fast and poorly, mostly because of conditioning, or a lack thereof.
Still, it’s remarkable company … and Nos. 6-10 on Soto’s comps list might be even more impressive. It includes three Hall of Famers — Eddie Mathews (No.
6), Mantle (No. 8), and Orlando Cepeda (No. 9) — mortal-lock future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera (No.
7), and a son of a Hall of Famer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (No. 10).
Old-timer Red Sox fans might find it blasphemous that Soto is drawing so many comparisons to Ted Williams, and that’s understandable. No one in baseball history truly compares to the greatest hitter who has ever lived, for, oh, 406 different reasons. (Imagine what he would command on the open market in this era.
A billion-dollar ballplayer, anyone? )But Soto, as colleague Alex Speier expertly detailed, has rare attributes in common with Williams, starting with an uncanny knack for laying off bad pitches, then annihilating the ones he does get to hit. Soto is first among active players with that .
421 OBP and fourth in slugging (. 542). Williams is first all-time in on-base percentage (.
482) and second to Babe Ruth in slugging (. 634). Soto is not Ted Williams, because again, no one is.
But he’s as close as you’re going to get in current times. It would be fitting in a way if he ended up playing left field at Fenway. I suspect that was part of the Red Sox’ sell in their meeting, inasmuch as the sell was authentic.
Imagining Soto playing left field at Fenway — like Ted Williams, and, yes, like Manny Ramirez too — is easy. But expecting it? No way.
Not now. Not yet. Let me know when Soto is pulling that white jersey over his shoulders, cameras clicking, and all hope restored.
Until then, I’ll just be over here, hearing the words echo about what baseball players cost one more time, until there’s no longer a reason to remember them. Chad Finn can be reached at chad. finn@globe.
com. Follow him @GlobeChadFinn. This post was originally published on this site be sure to check out more of their content.