Sergio Perez has endured one of the poorest seasons for a frontrunning driver in recent F1 history. With four rounds to go, he’s slipped 202 points behind Red Bull teammate Max Verstappen. One could argue that last season wasn’t much better.

Perez finished 290 points behind Verstappen – the largest-ever margin between teammates – but still managed to take second in the standings. That speaks to the historic dominance of the RB19. Now that Red Bull’s rivals have closed in and, in the case of McLaren and Ferrari, moved ahead, he finds himself eighth in the championship.

Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty ImagesIn mitigation, the RB20 is clearly a difficult car to drive. Verstappen has repeatedly complained about it during his ongoing 10-race drought.

Red Bull engineers even apologised to Perez in September, acknowledging that they hadn’t fully taken on board his feedback. Verstappen was pointing to issues that the Mexican had been experiencing for a while. But clearly those problems aren’t severe enough to excuse Perez’s underperformance.

That’s why Red Bull are rather publicly him threatening him with the axe despite extending his contract earlier this year. Sergio Perez could lose Red Bull seat after Brazilian Grand PrixUp to this point, Christian Horner and Helmut Marko have planned to make a decision on their driver line-up after the season finale in Abu Dhabi. That would give them as much time as possible to evaluate RB’s Liam Lawson.

But now the timeline could change. According to Fox Sports Australia, a rumour ‘erupted’ in the Mexico City Grand Prix paddock that Red Bull could fire Perez after this weekend’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix. It would, in all likelihood, be his final race in Formula 1.

Perez’s stock has suffered so much that he’s unlikely to appeal to any other team. Martin Brundle fears Red Bull could face contractual issues after the agreement they reached in June. But it’s believed that Perez breached the terms of his deal by falling too far behind Verstappen in the standings.

Red Bull just subtly hinted that they’re already favouring Liam LawsonPerez’s father believes the ‘best is yet to come’, based on an Instagram post on Tuesday. He spoke of his son’s ‘last race’ and ‘the end of the movie’, but it’s unlikely he was referring to Mexico or Brazil. Given that he’s been so bullish in the media, repeatedly insisting that he has a contract and will be staying put for next year, it may come as a shock if Red Bull hand him his P45 in the three-week break between Sao Paulo and Las Vegas.

Some would argue it’s better to wait. After all, his replacement may not be able to deliver a meaningful improvement at such short notice. It’s unlikely that the move would affect the outcome of the constructors’ standings, with the Milton Keynes outfit now 54 points behind.

However, there are already signs that Red Bull are favouring Lawson. After he tangled with Perez in Mexico, the team didn’t seem especially ‘bothered’, at least in the public domain.